Disruptive technologies have never followed an incline, they follow an S-Curve. And we are not ready for it.
In his book, The Singularity Is Near, Ray Kurzweil plots the price-performance (or processing power per dollar) of five paradigms in computing — electromechanical, relay, vacuum tube, discrete transistor, and (finally) integrated circuits. Together, they follow a smooth exponential curve.
How?
Disruptive technologies have never followed an incline. They have always followed an S-Curve. Each new technology advances along an S-curve — an exponential beginning and a flattening out as the technology reaches its limits. But as one technology flattens, the next paradigm takes over. The result is a series of overlapping S-curves that combine in a broader exponential curve.
The S-curve shows the innovation from its slow early beginnings as the technology or process is developed, to an acceleration phase (a steeper line) as it matures and, finally, to its stabilization over time (the flattening curve), with corresponding increases in performance of the item or organization using it.
What comes next for DLT? The acceleration phase will peak in the next few years at 10 x 2016 levels. DLT has seen its first growth curve or the bottom of the S. We are approaching the acceleration phase of the S curve. But we’re handicapped. We are still trying to take the infrastructure we already have in place, and reuse it.
Noel’s Law of Decentralization,
“The First thing a centralized organization will do, when confronted with a decentralized mechanism, is to try and centralized it. “ Michael Noel CBP
Payments, Voting, Healthcare, Real Estate, Investments, Capitalization of Innovation, and just about everything else have workflows based on the old paradigm. And they have all failed.
Payments, as it is currently, is a failed institution. Globally, about 1.7 billion adults remain unbanked — without an account at a financial institution or through a mobile money provider. It is estimated that 80% of these 1.7 billion unbanked adults have a cell phone. In 5 years the number of Unbanked Adults globally will be a fraction of 1.7 billion.
Voting has come to a point where it can be gamed. Anything, client-server-based can and will be gamed. DLT voting is easy to implement. Just give each wallet a voting token that they can use, or not use. In 5 years, the current voting system will compete with a transparent, unhackable DLT solution. The current voting system will not survive the transition.
Healthcare, HIPPA compliance has made a mockery of the United States. The United States still stands out from much of the developed world in state efforts to make medical care available to the public. Universal Healthcare is so difficult that only 32 of the 33 major developed nations have been able to pull it off. DLT based secured information can be securely shared by token holders. DLT Mutual Insurance Organizations are coming. They function one thousand times quicker and 100 times less expensively. The current healthcare system in the US profits from sickness, DLT Mutual Insurance Organizations profit from wellness. In 5 years, the Healthcare system will have been disintermediated in some form and will compete with DLT Mutual Healthcare Insurance Organizations which will eventually take over.
Real Estate
Real Estate, Currently, around 18.5 million Bitcoins have been mined. Each has been fractionalized 10’s of thousands of times. We can tell you with 100% accuracy which wallet owns each fraction thereof.
We can also tell you, with 100% accuracy, which wallet owned every fraction 10 minutes ago.
We can also tell you, with 100% accuracy, which wallet owned every fraction 10 Hours ago.
We can also tell you, with 100% accuracy, which wallet owned every fraction 10 days ago.
We can also tell you, with 100% accuracy, which wallet owned every fraction 10 Weeks ago.
And so on. But we can’t tell you accurately who owns a piece of Real Estate in America.
It is estimated that 20% of all title in America is flawed to some extent. It is flawed so bad, that we need title insurance. The market size, measured by revenue, of the Title Insurance industry, is $16.6bn in 2021. This is necessary because the current title system doesn’t work. We do not need title insurance when we move millions of tokens around do we? No, we don’t. And in less than 5 years we will not need title companies.
Investments
Investments are a joke. Pump and Dumps have no fundamental value and add nothing to the GDP. Speculation has gone awry, and speculation still controls the market. In speculation 80% of the time someone loses, 15% of the time someone wins. 80% of the time when someone loses it’s usually your mom’s 401k. 15% of the time someone wins, it’s someone who already has enough money. All this activity adds nothing to the GDP. We have done a horrible job of distributing wealth in this paradigm. 68 wealth hoarders at the top of the chain control more than half of all the wealth created in recent memory. STO’s are coming, and the playing field will not be limited to a stock exchange. In this wider environment, speculation will not function. Investment is intended to finance innovation. In this new environment that is exactly what investments will do. This has already started and will begin to pick up speed this year.
Capitalization of Innovation
Capitalization of Innovation is almost at a standstill. And the innovation that is being funded, is being funded to facelift the current workflows. We need to move a mountain, but instead of developing the tools necessary, we are fitting our 72 Volkswagen Bug with a truck bed.
This trend continues in almost every workflow. I could go on for days. Don’t believe me, just ask any of my friends, most of which are tired of listening to me.
Many industries are slow to adopt. Mostly because it requires a forklift of their current infrastructure. Yet many industries are already moving forward in the new paradigm. Consider these facts:
Airbnb has become the largest hotel chain in the world (after launching in 2008), with more than 850,000 rooms, and without owning any hotels.
From 2012 to 2014, Uber consumed a whopping 65% of San Francisco’s taxi business.
Advances in artificial intelligence and robotics put 47% of U.S. employment (over 60 million jobs) at high risk of being replaced in the next decade.
10 million new autonomous vehicles per year will be entering U.S. highways by 2030.
Today’s sensors are 1 billion times better (1000x lighter, 1000x cheaper, and 1000x the resolution) than only 40 years ago. By 2030, 100 trillion sensors could be operational worldwide.
The cost of DNA sequencing dropped precipitously (from $1B to $5K) in only 15 years. By 2023 it could be $0.01.
In 2000, it took $5,000,000 to launch an Internet startup. Today the cost is less than $5,000.
With gains like this, it’s no wonder futurist Ray Kurzweil predicted that progress in this century could be of equal magnitude to all such progress over the last 200 centuries.
But what about the S-Curve? Remember where we started? Yes, the S-Curve.
Technological change does not follow a linear progression. We tend to see change as slowly happening over time, that each year a few more people have adapted a particularly new thing. That kind of change is represented by the straight black line on the drawing. However, most of the time change does not happen in a straight line progression but follows an s-curve like the red line on the chart
In the early years of some new product, service, or technology there are very few users. Just some early adopters, hobbyists, and risk-takers. Over time the number of users increases slowly until a critical tipping point is reached. At this time the new technology enters a period of rapid growth. In a very short time, the number of users doubles then doubles again, then doubles again, and very soon the new technology, product, or service has become mainstream.
This s-curve is obvious with some technologies, like cell phones. Cell phones were first developed in 1974. For years the number of cell phone users grew slowly, then suddenly in the mid-90s (twenty years after it was invented) cell phones reached a tipping point and overnight it seemed everybody had cell phones. Now there are more cell phone lines than there are traditional wired landlines.
DLT acceleration phase is just starting but we are nowhere near ready for the 10x acceleration this phase promises.
In the next few years, the DLT acceleration phase will peak at 10 times the velocity of the first phase which started in 2016. Yet today, we are fitting our 72 Volkswagen Bug with a hitch for a trailer with no idea that in just a few months, the wheels are going to fall off. Those who conceive simple logical repeatable processes that are scalable and THEN plan, test, and implement now will succeed, those who don’t will fail.
This is how it has been and will be.
Organizational structure, the nature of work, and the limits of human performance are being rethought as leadership, management, and education are transformed to fit the new paradigm. In this new paradigm, we are nearing the acceleration phase and it will provide 10x growth. This is the mountain we need to move in the next 5 years. This 10x mountain we need to move is here already but the 72 Volkswagen Bug we are planning to use to move this mountain is nowhere near up to the task.
Digital Currencies are ushering in a new paradigm and Consensus is at its core. If you haven’t spent time learning what Consensus is, it is time to do so.
Unfettered Global transactions are the promise and Disintermediation is the tool. The sooner we cumulatively begin to realize that we can not take traditional economic theory into the digital realm the better.
Change is coming and the future is decentralized.
I’m ready for it, are you?
Michael Noel CBP
#Blockchan #Tokenomics #DigitalCurrencies #Consensus #Disintermediation
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Sources
https://www.globalxetfs.com/what-does-disruptive-growth-look-like/
https://emmottontechnology.com/management/s-curve-of-change/
https://www.globalxetfs.com/what-does-disruptive-growth-look-like/
